The summer of 2026 has created an overall positive mood in the global financial markets. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the background, the stock markets showed resilience. This development was supported by solid corporate numbers, hopes for political easing, and sustained interest in investments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
But how sustainable is this upward trend, and what should be watched in the coming weeks? A detailed look at the past month and expectations for July.
Review of June 2026: Records on the global stock exchanges
June was pleasing for many investors. In particular, in the USA, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones continued their upward movement and closed the quarter at new highs.
In Europe, a positive trend re-emerged after a brief period of uncertainty. The Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX rose, supported by the prospect of a generally looser monetary policy and robust corporate data. The Swiss leading index SMI remained stable as usual, while in Japan, the Nikkei 225 benefited from a weak yen, which supported the country's export-oriented companies.
Our positioning in the current environment
Due to our consciously defensive positioning in recent months, we have only partially participated in the recent dynamic market phase. We are aware that such restraint during strong upward phases can lead to lower performance compared to the main indices in the short term. However, we remain convinced that a disciplined asset preservation and a balanced return-risk ratio are more stable in the long term than orientation towards short-term market trends. To respond to the changed conditions, we have purposefully diversified the portfolios more broadly in recent weeks and gradually increased the investment ratio.
Outlook July 2026: Solid foundation with remaining risks
The markets are starting the new month with a cautiously optimistic mood. In July, the focus of market participants is primarily on three core areas: the upcoming earnings season of companies, new inflation data, and the monetary policy signals from the US Federal Reserve. A central aspect will be whether companies – especially in the highly regarded AI sector – can actually meet the sometimes very high profit expectations.
Europe: For the European markets, the tendency remains cautiously optimistic. The Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX could be supported by falling energy prices and a stabilizing economy. The course of the European Central Bank (ECB) remains decisive.
Switzerland: The SMI is likely to remain a stable anchor due to its high proportion of defensive quality companies, even in the event of market fluctuations.
Asia: In Japan, the export-driven economy continues to support the Nikkei 225; however, monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan could cause short-term volatility.
Commodities: A significant uncertainty factor remains the development of oil prices. A renewed price increase could raise inflationary pressure and further delay the interest rate cuts that the markets are hoping for.
"Long-term investment success is not measured by the speed at which we chase short-term market highs, but by the discipline and prudence with which we protect capital in times of change."
Conclusion: Quality and foresight in focus
In summary, we look cautiously optimistic at the coming weeks. While solid corporate earnings provide a good foundation for the markets, the demanding valuations and geopolitical risks continue to call for caution. A broad diversification across various asset classes and regions remains, in our view, the most sensible way to control risks while also taking advantage of long-term opportunities. Quality and a steady hand remain the key advisors in this market environment.
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